Research
Publications
"Dismantling the "Jungle": Refugee Relocation and Extreme Voting in France" (joint with Paul Vertier and Matteo Gamalerio)
[Political Science Research and Methods, Volume 1, Issue 1, June 2022]
Abstract:
Can a small scale inflow of refugees affect electoral outcomes? If yes, do those effects have local spillovers? More specifically, what impact did the relocation of refugees from the Calais “Jungle” to temporary refugee-centres (CAOs) in France have on votes in favour of the right wing party “Front National” in the 2017 presidential election? We find that the presence of a CAO reduces the vote share increase of the Front National by about 13.3 percent compared to other municipalities. Given that we find no impact on local economic activity, those estimates point towards the contact hypothesis (Allport, 1954). In order to estimate the impact of refugee relocation on political outcomes we use an instrumental variables approach that relies on the size of holiday villages present in municipalities. Since this initial holiday villages were determined historically, the exclusion restriction is arguably warranted. There is evidence that the effects on electoral outcomes spatially dissipate. Exploring some heterogeneous effects we find that negative effects on the vote share of the Front National are stronger in larger municipalities with a higher share of immigrants and a higher share of younger people. To the contrary, the negative effect is lower in cities which volunteered to welcome migrants, which received more of them, and which were in contact with refugees for a shorter period of time. [PDF] [SSRN] [Cesifo WP 6927] [Immigration Policy Lab Working Paper] [LIEPP WP]
Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal, Alternatives Economiques, Lavoce.info, Nada es Gratis, El Periodico Catalunya
"Refugee reception, extreme-right voting, and compositional amenities: evidence from Italian municipalities" (joint with Matteo Gamalerio, Mario Luca and Alessio Romarri)
[Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 100, May 2023]
Abstract:
We use data from Italy to study the political and social impact of a refugee reception policy (SPRAR) directly managed by local governments, whose features recall the conditions of the contact theory (Allport, 1954). Instrumental variables estimates indicate that municipalities that opened a refugee center between the 2013 and 2018 national elections experienced a change in the vote shares of extreme-right parties approximately 7 percentage points lower compared to towns that did not open a refugee center. We document that the positive impact of SPRARs on “compositional amenities” (i.e., local schools) and population growth allows explaining the negative impact on anti-immigrants’ prejudice. Finally, we provide evidence of spillovers in prejudice reduction in neighboring municipalities without a SPRAR.. [PDF] [SSRN]
Media Coverage: Lavoce.info, Nada es Gratis, El Periodico Catalunya, Tiriamo a Campari
Working Papers
"Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Did immigration cause Brexit?"
Abstract:
Can immigration impact electoral outcomes and specifically, what impact did immigration have on the vote in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit) in the UK? In particular, I focus on how the increase in Polish immigration, the major group of immigrants post 2004, affected votes in favour of leaving the EU. I find a percentage point increase in Polish immigration to the UK to have caused an increase in votes in favour of Brexit of about 2.72-3.12 percentage points, depending on the specification. To obtain exogenous variation in Polish immigration, I use a novel instrumental variables approach that relies on the fact that after WW2 Polish army officers fighting in the Royal Air Force were quasi randomly allocated to War Resettlement Camps (WRCs) all across the UK. Discussing potential mechanisms, I examine public opinion data in the British Election Study 2015 and find evidence of adversity towards immigration to be a root cause. Other considerations such as the National Health Service (NHS), incumbency and the general trust in politicians as well as the political institutions seem not to play a role. [PDF] [SSRN]
Winner of the Marcello de Cecco Prize in the History and Economics of Institutions. (Speech)
Media Coverage: Abruzzo News, Il Centro, Radio Radicale, Economia e Finanza Verde, Chieti Today
In preparation
"Fake news and cultural identity: Evidence from South Tyrol in 1939" (joint with Martin Halla, Alexia Lochmann and Steven Stillman)
Abstract
Does misleading information affect cultural preferences? Using an event history study coupled with a regression discontinuity design, we study whether parents changed the naming patterns of their newborn children following a historical episode of fake news around a policy of forced emigration. We use newly digitized household-level data to carry out an extensive event history study around the announcement date of the fake news, relying on three methodological approaches. Constructing a proxy for cultural preferences, we call "Nibelungen Index", we show that these fake news lead people to strengthen their cultural identity and specifically to name their offspring in a more German way. We find that women who were pregnant between the 3rd and 6th month at the time of fake news announcement were particularly prone to change the newborn's first name, and carry out a heterogeneity of effects analysis for gender and birth order of the newborns. Analyzing different channels for the change in naming patterns, we find an overall change in cultural preferences to be more pronounced than a change in economic incentives. We find interesting results for different channels by gender and birth order, which reflect the decision making strategies of the family nucleus. The results are in line with historic literature, as well as economic literature on the role of children in the family nucleus of agricultural societies. Finally, we carry out a set of robustness tests. These results suggest three possible repercussions from the exposure to fake news: an immediate behavioral response, a persistent information bias, and possible externalities on others.
"Dismantling the "Jungle": Refugee Relocation and Extreme Voting in France" (joint with Paul Vertier and Matteo Gamalerio)
[Political Science Research and Methods, Volume 1, Issue 1, June 2022]
Abstract:
Can a small scale inflow of refugees affect electoral outcomes? If yes, do those effects have local spillovers? More specifically, what impact did the relocation of refugees from the Calais “Jungle” to temporary refugee-centres (CAOs) in France have on votes in favour of the right wing party “Front National” in the 2017 presidential election? We find that the presence of a CAO reduces the vote share increase of the Front National by about 13.3 percent compared to other municipalities. Given that we find no impact on local economic activity, those estimates point towards the contact hypothesis (Allport, 1954). In order to estimate the impact of refugee relocation on political outcomes we use an instrumental variables approach that relies on the size of holiday villages present in municipalities. Since this initial holiday villages were determined historically, the exclusion restriction is arguably warranted. There is evidence that the effects on electoral outcomes spatially dissipate. Exploring some heterogeneous effects we find that negative effects on the vote share of the Front National are stronger in larger municipalities with a higher share of immigrants and a higher share of younger people. To the contrary, the negative effect is lower in cities which volunteered to welcome migrants, which received more of them, and which were in contact with refugees for a shorter period of time. [PDF] [SSRN] [Cesifo WP 6927] [Immigration Policy Lab Working Paper] [LIEPP WP]
Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal, Alternatives Economiques, Lavoce.info, Nada es Gratis, El Periodico Catalunya
"Refugee reception, extreme-right voting, and compositional amenities: evidence from Italian municipalities" (joint with Matteo Gamalerio, Mario Luca and Alessio Romarri)
[Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 100, May 2023]
Abstract:
We use data from Italy to study the political and social impact of a refugee reception policy (SPRAR) directly managed by local governments, whose features recall the conditions of the contact theory (Allport, 1954). Instrumental variables estimates indicate that municipalities that opened a refugee center between the 2013 and 2018 national elections experienced a change in the vote shares of extreme-right parties approximately 7 percentage points lower compared to towns that did not open a refugee center. We document that the positive impact of SPRARs on “compositional amenities” (i.e., local schools) and population growth allows explaining the negative impact on anti-immigrants’ prejudice. Finally, we provide evidence of spillovers in prejudice reduction in neighboring municipalities without a SPRAR.. [PDF] [SSRN]
Media Coverage: Lavoce.info, Nada es Gratis, El Periodico Catalunya, Tiriamo a Campari
Working Papers
"Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail: Did immigration cause Brexit?"
Abstract:
Can immigration impact electoral outcomes and specifically, what impact did immigration have on the vote in favour of leaving the European Union (Brexit) in the UK? In particular, I focus on how the increase in Polish immigration, the major group of immigrants post 2004, affected votes in favour of leaving the EU. I find a percentage point increase in Polish immigration to the UK to have caused an increase in votes in favour of Brexit of about 2.72-3.12 percentage points, depending on the specification. To obtain exogenous variation in Polish immigration, I use a novel instrumental variables approach that relies on the fact that after WW2 Polish army officers fighting in the Royal Air Force were quasi randomly allocated to War Resettlement Camps (WRCs) all across the UK. Discussing potential mechanisms, I examine public opinion data in the British Election Study 2015 and find evidence of adversity towards immigration to be a root cause. Other considerations such as the National Health Service (NHS), incumbency and the general trust in politicians as well as the political institutions seem not to play a role. [PDF] [SSRN]
Winner of the Marcello de Cecco Prize in the History and Economics of Institutions. (Speech)
Media Coverage: Abruzzo News, Il Centro, Radio Radicale, Economia e Finanza Verde, Chieti Today
In preparation
"Fake news and cultural identity: Evidence from South Tyrol in 1939" (joint with Martin Halla, Alexia Lochmann and Steven Stillman)
Abstract
Does misleading information affect cultural preferences? Using an event history study coupled with a regression discontinuity design, we study whether parents changed the naming patterns of their newborn children following a historical episode of fake news around a policy of forced emigration. We use newly digitized household-level data to carry out an extensive event history study around the announcement date of the fake news, relying on three methodological approaches. Constructing a proxy for cultural preferences, we call "Nibelungen Index", we show that these fake news lead people to strengthen their cultural identity and specifically to name their offspring in a more German way. We find that women who were pregnant between the 3rd and 6th month at the time of fake news announcement were particularly prone to change the newborn's first name, and carry out a heterogeneity of effects analysis for gender and birth order of the newborns. Analyzing different channels for the change in naming patterns, we find an overall change in cultural preferences to be more pronounced than a change in economic incentives. We find interesting results for different channels by gender and birth order, which reflect the decision making strategies of the family nucleus. The results are in line with historic literature, as well as economic literature on the role of children in the family nucleus of agricultural societies. Finally, we carry out a set of robustness tests. These results suggest three possible repercussions from the exposure to fake news: an immediate behavioral response, a persistent information bias, and possible externalities on others.
